Why netbooks will soon cost $99

Prediction: The era when subnotebooks are subsidized like mobile phones is here -- almost

5. The "subnotebook" has been reconceptualized as a "netbook." Notice how the word "subnotebook" has been dumped in favor of "netbook"? It's not just semantics. The industry wants to tie tiny laptops to mobile broadband in the minds of buyers.

6. Mobile broadband is disappointing. Apple iPhone users who upgraded from the old-and-busted iPhone to the new hotness iPhone 3G have expressed disappointment in the 3G experience. The same is true for mobile broadband users of all kinds. As the reality dawns that 3G is nice, but not as nice as people hoped, subsidized netbooks will sweeten the proposition.

7. Moore's Law. The price of mini electronics, including the price of screens, processors and, most importantly, solid-state flash storage will keep coming down. And as those prices drop, the cost for carriers to subsidize these devices drops as well.

The age of the subsidized netbook is almost upon us. The next major milestone -- and the one that will bring customers in by the millions -- is to get netbooks down to the magic $99 price point. All the stars are aligned. All that remains to be done is for netbook makers and carriers to embrace the inevitable.

Mike Elgan writes about technology and global tech culture.Contact Mike at mike.elgan@elgan.com or his blog, The Raw Feed.

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