IDC Telco Predictions 2010

Federal Government/NBN Co will pay up to $15 billion for Telstra's last mile infrastructure

IDC has released its 2010 telco market predictions making the pretty safe bets that the Australian market will make a stable recover in 2010 and that the NBN Co and Telstra strike a deal. But believes that there’ll be no NBN fibre rollout on the mainland during the year.

In the Australia Telecommunications 2010 Top 10 Predictions report, IDC predicts that in exchange for structurally separating, the Federal Government will pay up to $15 billion for Telstra's infrastructure – such as the last-mile copper and access ducts - required to enable NBN Co to roll out its FTTH solution.

The company also predicts that the agreement will include at least 10 per cent equity in NBN Co in exchange for Telstra agreeing to put its subscribers onto the NBN as it is being built whilst gradually decommissioning the PSTN.

“This being the case, there will also be several other infrastructures for equity swap deals negotiated between NBN Co and the industry,” the analyst firm says. “This will undoubtedly consume a significant amount of time throughout 2010 from an engineering/architecture design perspective. It is for this reason that IDC believes no mainland NBN build will commence in 2010.”

The company is also tipping that the year ahead will see multiple new IPTV and Video on Demand services launch and that mobile broadband (MBB) subscriber growth will decline.

“IDC believes the low-hanging MBB fruit has well and truly been picked and that the stellar growth of both MBB subscribers and revenue will subside in 2010,” the report reads.

Converged mobile device growth is expected to surge, IDC says, as vendors flood the market with devices to compete against the iPhone. A corresponding boom in mobile data is also expected.

“Converged devices are now at a point where a data connection is all but essential to getting the most out of your device,” the report reads. “Social networking, weather, stock market updates, and news headlines are now being tightly integrated throughout most aspects of converged devices, and, with such significant components of devices relying on having a data connection, consumers without a datapack on their account will be severely limited in what they can do with their device.”

IDC also predicts that with the plethora of mobile operating systems on offer, the market is ripe for consolidation.

“Currently, there are eight distinct converged device (smartphone) operating systems (OSs) in use by mobile device vendors — Android, Blackberry OS, Linux, Mac OS, Palm OS, Symbian, Web OS, and Windows Mobile (WM),” the report reads. “These eight broad OSs can further be segmented into at least 11 distinct variants, further complicating the ecosystem.”

IDC’s 2010 telecommunications market predictions:

1. Macroeconomic Predictions for Australia 2010 point to a stable recovery 2. NBN Co and Telstra strike a deal but still no fibre rollout on the mainland in 2010 3. Mobile Broadband subscriber growth will decline but handset data-packs will surge 4. Converged Mobile Device growth will surge, as vendors flood the market with devices to compete against the iPhone, with mobile data becoming essential 5. Multiple new IPTV and Video on Demand services will launch, the end of the video store is near 6. LAN Market will bounce back due to a combination of both service provider and enterprise investment 7. Mobile video demand will stall as consumer frustration swells 8. Mobile Device OS consolidation is now imminent 9. Application aware networking vendors are ripe for acquisition 10. Next-Generation mobile messaging will hit a tipping point and start to eat into SMS and MMS revenues

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