'Feeding Frenzy'
And lots of new IT jobs are being created in the Web 2.0 arena, as more online advertising dollars go to such sites and mainstream companies look to communicate with their customers in new ways, Buik said. She described the rush to hire workers with Web 2.0 skills as "a feeding frenzy."
But such examples are by no means universal. Andrew Bartels, an analyst at Forrester Research, has twice lowered the consulting firm's US IT spending forecast since last October, and he's now working to adjust it for a third time.
Forrester's current prediction calls for 2 percent to 3 percent growth in tech spending this year, followed by an increase of up to 10 percent in 2009. The firm's current IT staffing outlook is virtually flat for this year, with Bartels projecting a 1 percent increase in the total number of IT jobs and average pay raises of 3 percent to 4 percent.
But the first half of 2008 actually appears to have been better than expected from an IT spending standpoint, Bartels said. That may not be a cause for celebration, though. The second half of this year as well as 2009 are "looking pretty bleak," he added, predicting that the economic problems are "finally going to take a toll on tech hiring."
That said, Bartels does see some possible saving graces. First, large companies -- especially those that are outside of the banking and automotive industries, and that have large overseas presences -- continue to do well financially, he said. "That's probably why we're seeing solid numbers on IT employment right now," said Bartels, noting that small and midsize businesses are "hurting big time" but don't hire as many IT workers as their larger counterparts do to begin with.
And historically, the IT industry has been less susceptible to recessions than other markets have been, according to Bartels. Except in the case of the dot-com bust, IT spending has slowed but not declined, he said. "I think that's what we're seeing this time as well," Bartels added. "Growth is slowing, which is not the worst of all worlds by any means."
John Challenger, president of outplacement consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, said he's pessimistic about the economy in general. "I do think there's going to be pressure on IT staffs because of the recession," Challenger said. But he added that staffing levels tend to be less volatile in IT than in other departments because companies rely so heavily on technology to run their business operations.
Corporate executives may cut back on long-term projects, Challenger said, "but they can't just cut out IT."