Cluley based his forecast on two facts: The software will be free, while rivals' programs cost US$50 and up each year, and Microsoft is a brand name. "Having a name as well-known as Microsoft doing this will encourage people to use security software, and that's marvelous," Cluley said.
But at the same time, Cluley cautioned, it's possible that if Microsoft is successful at persuading consumers to install the free Morro, users could actually suffer in the long run. "The potential issue here is that if there are fewer antivirus companies, we may see less innovation," he said. And if a large number of people are using Microsoft's software, and that free offering has pushed out other players, "it may be easier for hackers to get past our defenses," Cluley argued.
However, John Pescatore, an analyst and research fellow at Gartner, questioned whether users would step up to Microsoft's free software. Noting that Windows Live OneCare "hasn't made a dent" in market share, he argued that one reason consumers have steered clear of Microsoft's security software was distrust.
"Consumers are hesitant to pay for a Microsoft security product that will remove problems in other Microsoft products," he said. "Think of it this way. What if you smelled a rotten egg odor in your water, and the water company said, 'Sure, we can remove that, but it will cost you $50.' Would you buy it?"
From Pescatore's point of view, Microsoft's announcement to dump OneCare and go free with Morro was primarily a business decision driven by the failure of OneCare to gain market share and of Microsoft to turn a profit on the acquisition years ago of the technology it used as the starting point for its security line.
Pescatore wasn't buying the idea that it was only a move to boost the number of consumers running security software. "In general, they did get the message years ago that it doesn't matter if [a problem] is Microsoft's fault or not, but I don't think this is a piece of that strategy."
Microsoft's Barzdukas said business didn't enter into the decision. "The focus of going into the OneCare business was to get a broader range of people protected," she said. "We've been very pleased with OneCare's performance, and subscriptions are exceeding what we had projected." She denied that OneCare's future disappearance was tied to a lack of profitability.
One major consumer security developer said it wasn't worried about Microsoft offering free software next year.
"We like our chances," said Todd Gebhart, McAfee's vice president in charge of its consumer line. "It will appeal to some," he admitted, "but if you look at the growth, it's coming out of the higher-end suites. Users are voting with dollars, and they understand the need for greater security, not just core antivirus."
Symantec echoed that, but put it into even blunter words. "Consumers have already rejected OneCare even though it entered the market at a lower price, because OneCare offered substandard protection and poor performance as evidenced by scores of third-party reviews," Trollope said. "Making a significantly scaled-back version of that same substandard security technology free won't change that equation."
It's not clear if current users of OneCare will be given refunds if their subscriptions have not yet expired when Morro is released. Barzdukas declined to answer questions about refunds, but said OneCare users will continue to get updates after June 30, when the software is pulled from retail.