Gartner says virtualization too expensive

Technology will be free in future

SOA and Web services, as a part of RTI, could become a problem for data centres as businesses and vendors explore the model, according to Bittman.

"SOA is inevitable and the majority of unplanned downtime in an SOA will be caused by applications because SOA application management is hard," Bittman said, adding that SOA is still beneficial because it will make applications more "operationally-aware".

He said application failure will be the number one cause of unplanned downtime and will increase in businesses that use SOAs.

He cited Gartner statistics which found unplanned downtime in SOA-based businesses with be caused by application failure (60 percent), operator error (20 percent), and environmental factors (20 percent).

In contrast, unplanned downtime in non SOA-base business will be caused by application failure (40 percent), operator error (40 percent), and environmental factors (20 percent).

He said the top-down RTI strategies of big vendors like IBM, HP and Sun are being downplayed because users want incremental, ground-up solutions.

"Microsoft and VMware are working ground-up RTI strategies, and we have found our predictions that 80 percent of RTI innovations will come from small players is true."

Power and cooling concerns will die out like last years' fashion with the arrival of specialist technology in 2011, but Bittman said data centres will need to endure insufficient technology until then.

"Power and cooling requires densities that current equipment can't handle [but] you will need to survive a few years before it is resolved," Bittman said.

Sargent pointed out increasing densities and shrinking technology is causing grief with IT managers trying to cap power use in their data centres.

Windows and Linux will split over the next few years to meet the rising demands in thin computing which will rival the need for a centralized operating system.

"The need for a deep, general Windows and Linux will grow, but thin computing will demand a [stripped down] OS which will basically be a smaller runtime application for streaming to thin clients," Bittman said.

On the outsourcing front, big players will sink as small dynamic vendors soak up business from SMBs.

"Large companies that currently dominate the market will retain their governance while smaller, cheaper outsourcers will soak up [menial] tasks outsourced by SMBs," he said.

IT managers should focus on improving business agility and culture, noting that the best way to improve the former is to ask customers what their service expectations are.

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