5. Cloud computing: Business solutions
Analysts from Forrester, Gartner, and IDC say that certain pieces of cloud computing will continue to expand -- and perhaps even accelerate due to the downturn.
IDC predicts that cloud computing will account for 9 or 10 percent of IT spending by 2012, up from the 4 percent allocated in 2008. "That's a conservative forecast made before the Dow tanked," Gens adds. "So that's going to accelerate cloud offerings from the big vendors."
Gens sees many companies moving to the cloud for the applications and services most often sought by business types, who are actually circumventing the IT department to get what they need. These include such business solutions as sales-force automation, productivity, and marketing campaign software. "The more pure IT stuff -- infrastructure, infrastructure software, application development -- those are tech buyers, so there are fewer potential customers," Gens says.
Tech buyers are taking a hard look at such cloud services as Amazon's EC2, which allows businesses to scale capacity dynamically by uploading virtual machines to Amazon's servers. But other less glitzy areas are getting traction, too. Cloud-based data backup and file storage services are "a really good idea that can be much more cost-effective" than going it the old-fashioned, in-house way, Forrester's Reichman says.
Gartner's Raskino adds to the list of cloud resources CIOs will find valuable during a recession such services as e-mail, storage, and lightweight productivity apps. "This is a good time to have a cost-centric argument, so IT might even take a risk to get a payoff with cloud technologies, if they're mature enough," he says.
Looking toward recovery
Over the next four years, IDC expects that the tech industry will lose more than $300 billion in revenue due to the spending slowdown. The good news: IT spending will make a full recovery and enjoy growth rates nearing 6 percent by 2012, according to IDC.
Whether such projections hold or not, Forrester's Reichman argues that IT shops must trim their sails and stay the course. "You cannot stop growing," Reichman explains. "Most companies are already fire-fighting, but you've got keep the lights on, keep things going forward, because the datacenter is always in a recession anyway. So keep moving."
Specsavers' Khan advises IT shops to weigh their options carefully, because investments made during a recession often have lasting impact. "In these economic scenarios," Khan says, "you've got to make a judgment on which technologies will bring you advantage when things turn around and get better."